The future of skepticism
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By Andy Kaiser
Article ID: 1247
Things are getting worse.
Across the world, we’ve got so-called complementary and alternative medicine infiltrating legitimate healthcare and medical treatments. The United States government seems more interested in supporting Christianity than supporting religious choice. There are attacks on preventative sciences, like Jenny McCarthy and others insisting their understanding of vaccination technology trumps that of any medical doctor.
While I could argue that skepticism is making progress in places, like against the fringe beliefs of cryptozoology, astrology and Intelligent Design, it’s even easier to argue that we’re losing the battle. Logic and common sense are failing and falling, supported by the beliefs of a credulous society.
We are losing. What’s a skeptic to do?
I fully expect that things will get worse. Yet, despite this gloomy outlook, I’m not worried.
Let’s do a little scrying of our own, a little fortune-telling and future-prediction. The difference between this and reading tea-leaves is that mine is an educated guess based on probabilities and human nature.
Think about a possible future for healthcare. Let’s assume the worst for the skeptical community. Let’s assume we live in a world where people believe vaccinations cause autism and don’t actually protect against disease. What will happen? As fewer people become immunized, herd immunity will break down. Entire communities will again become susceptible. We will see outbreaks and epidemics of preventable diseases like measles, mumps and rubella. We’ll see previously-eradicated diseases like polio and leprosy resurface and spread through populations. Many people will get sick. Many people will die.
The human response will be to analyze and respond. Doctors and biologists and groups like the Center for Disease Control will again stress the importance of immunizations. This goes far beyond the current polite and low-publicity efforts. We’ll get massive ad campaigns, increased TV coverage and a flood of data supporting and explaining the science behind immunizations. The information has always been out there for those interested in finding it, but in this Sick New World, immunization science will be shoved down our throats. People will immunize because they actually understand the process, the risks, and the benefits.
This scenario specifically addresses the anti-vaccination problem. But the long-term results are applicable across the board, from alternative-medicine to Scientology. If left unchecked, eventually enough people will get abused, hurt and killed. There will be an inevitable backlash as people come to their senses.
As skeptics and critical thinkers, our job is to make sure this imagined world, if it does come to pass, passes quickly. If we can prevent it from happening, even better. If we can’t prevent it, nature will do the job for us, though the results will be horrifying and deadly. Our job as skeptics will be to ensure this happens sooner rather than later.
Our first obligation is to take care of our family, friends and those closest to us. Then work to educate the wider community and the world at large.
The above example addresses healthcare. But a lack of critical thinking causes plenty of other problems in our society.
Scammers will always be around unless we increase people’s exposure to critical thinking. There will always be people trying to take advantage of others, and there will always be people ready to believe lies. We can lessen the damage with education and activism.
Religion is another issue. At its best, it’s a good cause that exists for the wrong reasons. At its worst, we get intolerance, persecution and death. Contributing to religion’s existence are blind belief in tradition, reliance on unjustified moral laws, and the very human trait of being scared of the dark. Critical thinking and a desire for knowledge can help define what religion really is, an ancient superstition, created at a time when people needed answers and didn’t know any better. Religion serves much the same role today. It shouldn’t have to.
The outcomes for these problems are definite. The world will get better, but the method of getting to that point can be easy or painful. We have a moral obligation to force the outcome sooner rather than later. We must save lives. We must prevent abuse of innocent people. We must advance science and advocate against the pursuit of nonsense.
The above points are why I believe – even in this credulous world – skepticism has already won. I say this not because we’re winning right now, but because the win is inevitable. The evidence is out there, and that counts more than my beliefs, your beliefs, or the beliefs of the most strident fundamentalist.
Some of us can be satisfied with this, knowing that skepticism and critical thinking will win in the end. These people need only to wait. For those not satisfied, and for those who feel the pull of the moral obligation to save lives, get out there. Help our world now. As skeptics, as critical thinkers, as humans, it’s the right thing to do.
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