The undecided voter: An appeal to rational voting

2008 October 14

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Approximately one month from the writing of this article, the United States is going to have a major election. We’re getting a new President! And the campaigns on all sides have overspent and probably overpromised. Some ran attack ads. Some have taken the high road, indicating they are above any “dirty political scheming”. Others have lived by the motto, “dirty political scheming”. And through it all, the American public and the rest of the world look on with what I can only describe as bemused fear.

In other words, it’s politics as usual.

However, as I get older, as I pay more attention to the process, something nags at me. This is an aspect central to every campaign I’ve seen, and every time I see it I wonder more and more at why it’s such an issue.

What is the problem with the “undecided voter”?

Near the end of the campaign cycle, there are always a bunch of “undecided” holdouts, a group of people over whom the press salivates, proclaiming them the new target group for whatever politician happens to be falling behind in the polls. As recently as one month before the election, CNN estimates that 8% of voters are undecided voters.

CNN 2008 undecided voters

And, frankly, honestly, depressingly, I don’t get it. I don’t understand how a group of people - a noticeable, sizable group of people - can get this far in the process and still don’t know who they’re going to vote for.

Here’s a rough timeline of what happens:

The campaign season begins. We’ve got contenders from the big parties debating their points on overcrowded stages. At this point, the loyal party hardliners have of course formed their opinion. Be they Democrat or Republican, they’ll vote to support their party, and the only question mark for them is what party representative will get that vote. That’s the hardcore voting block out of the way.

The season moves on, and political parties select their champion. In this year’s case, it’s either Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain. The voters now see the field cleared of all chaff, and can focus their energies deciding between these two people. (Yes, there is also the Vice Presidential pick, but to my knowledge an otherwise qualified president has never lost because of a poor choice of running mate.) Now is when people really start making decisions.

So the pollsters crank up their adding machines, plug them into a telephone jack, and the American public gets multiple annoying phone surveys every day, ringing on every phone in the country. We get detailed graphs of who is voting for who, broken down into geography, income, sex, race and pizza preference.

Yet there are always holdouts. Right up to the point when everyone’s lining up at the polls, there are undecided voters.

My fellow Americans, my friends in foreign lands, can someone please explain to me why this is?

I’ll use myself as an example of an undecided voter, because, well, I happen to be one during every election. You see, I’m a Libertarian. That means I like the Republicans’ fiscal policy and governmental downsizing. And I also like the Democrats’ liberal social views on issues like The War on Drugs, civil rights and Separation of Church and State. (Whether or not said parties actually hold to their supposed standards is another story. But I digress.)

My job is to look at the candidates and decide which person most closely represents my viewpoint. If it turns out that someone’s policy closely matches what I feel is the right way to run a nation, and the other does not, I’ve got my choice. If one person appears untrustworthy or an idiot, or acts in a way I wouldn’t support, that’s my indicator to look closely at the other candidate.

My method isn’t a secret. My mother has said that I’m special, but I know the truth: I’m not. I’m very similar to the other 300 million Americans. Yet to me what seems an obvious and easy choice - particularly as the election season ends - seems to be an enigma for others.

The Daily Show's undecided voters analysis

The Daily Show from Tuesday October 7, 2008 attempts to answer this question. These undecided voters, they say, are just stupid. The episode itself was incredibly funny (scroll to the 6:00 mark to see the appropriate part of the show), but it also expressed an amazed frustration that I also feel.

My point: Why there are so many “undecided voters”, when tie-breaking can be determined by an examination of party affiliation and policy statements?

How can a voter be this far in the process and still not know their pick? If they’ve been paying attention at all, they’ve been given plenty of information from which to form an opinion. Is this trait something local to the United States? Do other countries also suffer from this malaise of commitment?

To those undecided voters, your part in this election process is arguably miniscule, just as mine is. Yet every vote does and should be counted. Settle down. Focus. Examine the facts. Analyze the information in whatever way is easiest for you to process. Make a decision matrix if it gets too confusing. But whatever you do, this country cannot afford random decisions, recommendations based on TV ads or talking heads, a conversation with your best friend, or any other method absolving you from your responsibility. We’re past the time to debate policy and personality. Do what you have to do. Make up your minds.

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8 Comments leave one →

2008 October 14

Rob Steenwyk permalink

I would still have to classify myself as an undecided voter. You know that I was a big Ron Paul guy, so it is not that I have been uninvolved in the process so far. I probably know more about the candidates than 95% of the population does. But I’m still undecided.

So I guess I will let you in on the mind of one undecided voter.

I am much like you, in that I am extremely libertarian. I want free markets combined with personal choice and responsibility. In my opinion, the role of government should be to ensure the rights of it’s citizens (life, liberty & pursuit of happiness) and provide infrastructure that private enterprise is not able to create. That’s it.

Neither Senator McCain or Obama provide anything more than lip service to what my idea of government should be. Senator McCain supports keeping troops in Iraq for 100 years, doesn’t have any idea how the economy works and his general temperament does not fit my picture of an ideal President. He also seems to think that he can spend more on Defense spending without raising taxes, in the midst of an economic crisis that is causing tax revenue to go down.

Senator Obama on the other hand aligns more closely to me as far as foreign policy is concerned. But his domestic and economic policies are terrifying. More taxes, more welfare ( http://www.wsj.com/article/SB121910303529751345.html?mod=most_emailed_day ), windfall profit taxes on oil companies for making money etc. Most worrisome to me is that as the economy has melted, he has begun hating on free trade ( http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2008/05/26/080526ta_talk_surowiecki ).

I obviously understand that no candidate will ever agree with me on 100% of the issues, and I don’t expect them to. But I would like is a candidate that promises to do his best to balance the federal budget, as that is going to require a massive reduction in unnecessary federal services or massive tax hikes (political suicide). Federal debt is over 10 trillion dollars… I would love to see this paid down over my lifetime.

The number one issue for me is our economy, as it is the basis of American power. I want a President who truly understands economics and who surrounds himself with economists and advisors who do as well. Ron Paul knows more about economics than anyone else I know of, but unfortunately he is no longer running. Paul endorsed Chuck Baldwin, but I have a tough time voting for anyone who makes faith in god such a large portion of their platform.

I guess I am down to either McCain or Bob Barr at this point, but whoever I end up voting for I won’t have a smile on my face when I do it : (

2008 October 15

Tim Eisele permalink

I suspect that a large part of that 8% are not really “undecided” at all.

-Some are people who dislike pollsters, and answer “undecided” because there is no option given for “none of your business”

-Some may be people who plan to vote oppositely to, say, their spouse, who is sitting right there in the room while the pollster is calling, and they don’t want to come right out and say it at that point.

-Some may be going through the procedure outlined above, and have just found out some information that is making them change their mind about who they are supporting. It takes time to get one’s mind around switching from supporting one person, to supporting the other, and so they could legitimately be called “undecided” at that point.

-And finally, a significant number of people have convinced themselves that all the candidates are equally bad, that no matter who they vote for it will be a wrong choice, and they’ve essentially thrown up their hands and declared that they don’t care which one wins.

2008 October 15

David Annis permalink

I just heard a story on NPR about undecided voters in which they claimed that the vast majority were not really undecided. According to the story if you give undecided voters a “thermometer” poll before the election where you ask them to rate the candidate on a scale from 1 to 100 in more than 80% of the cases the candidate that they rate more highly will get their vote on election day. This holds true even if the ratio of candidate preference was 51% to 49%.

2008 October 15

David Annis permalink

RE: My previous comment. I found the original article that the story was based on. Here’s an excerpt:

Examining the 2004 election, Clymer and Winneg found that even the most hard-core of undecided voters were fairly predictable.

They asked the 4% of their sample that claimed to be undecided to rate the two candidates in early October. When they went back to the same people after the election, more than 80% had in fact voted for whichever candidate they’d rated most highly a month earlier.

2008 October 15

DB Skeptic permalink

David, thats very interesting. So perhaps being unconfirmed may also come with a subconscious decision already having been made?

Tim, I fully agree with every one of your points. I’m sure that’s part of what’s going on here. But not all. I didn’t say it in my article, but one of my targets was the people that publicly say they’re unconfirmed. For example:

1) (Contrasting David’s experience), I was listening to NPR on the way to work this morning, and they interviewed an undecided voter who was still agonizing over the various pros and cons from each candidate.

2) I remember watching the second Obama / McCain debate, and whatever news channel I was watching it on interviewed a group of college students afterwards. They’d gotten a good mix of people for each candidate, including some who were undecided.

I can understand the privacy aspect, and would believe that bites a chunk out of the 8% unconfirmed group. I can understand needing time to make a decision, but not this long. I can’t understand being this far down the political process, with everything we know about the candidates and their policies, and still not having made a decision.

Perhaps this is my admission of a lack of understanding of human nature. Good thing I never went into politics.

Andy

2008 October 15

Sandra H permalink

To Tim E:

That must be why you told that pollster you’d vote for Chtulhu. You knew if you didn’t I’d eat you in your sleep.

2008 October 15

DB Skeptic permalink

Wait a minute, Cthulhu’s running?!

That changes everything. I can now understand the undecided voter: Cthulhu has arguably the most effective financial recovery platform, but it involves eating people and eventually destroying life as we know it.

Tricky. I’ll have to give this some thought.

2008 October 15

Rob Steenwyk permalink

Andy, that may go down as the greatest picture ever. Thanks for finding that, lmao.

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The undecided voter: An appeal to rational voting

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