1) A Allen according to the dictionary is considered to be “A creature from outer space” nobody ever said they had to be intelligent or be able to communicate??? that puts the last 4 variables all to 100% putting N (the answer) into the thousands only for our galaxy then multiply that by 125 billion galaxies to get the answer for our universe. You do the maths my calculator isn’t big enghough!

2) If this was directed at intelligent life there should be another variable(s) added that take into account that a very intelligent race may half colonized several solar systems creating higher numbers of colonized planets in separate solar systems. It’s something that has always bothered me with the drake equation.

I’m sure that thought is what keeps a lot of UFO people going….there could be a civilization out there that is millions of years ahead of us in technology. With that kind of head start why couldn’t they be here? (the immediate thought i my mind as an answer is physics and probability)

By the way, you should change your “millions” to “billions”.

Over Very Long galaxy distances time is space.

In Geological terms (ie compared with the age of the Earth), Mankind has been around only a tiny fraction of time – If the Earth were a year old, mankind has existed for mere seconds.

The Earth is millions of years old. The Universe Millions of Light Years. So of your 65 proven alien races, all would have to exist in the same seconds-long window of existence within which the others are transmitting and receiving. That’s the killer for me.

Regards

Dave

Hrrrmm.

By any chance are you a Watchman fan?

The 50% of civilizations trying to communicate is also bogus.
How many civilizations have been on Earth? Hundreds? Thousands?

True. Though I never said that. I said, “What fraction of that intelligent life will actively try to communicate with other intelligent races?” In our case, I wasn’t talking about any particular civilization, but about the human race as a whole. So my guesstimate could be rewritten to say: “given a planet populated with intelligent beings, 50% of the time they will try to communicate with other races outside that planet.”

Of course, all this is pretty meaningless (or academic at best), since the Drake Equastion isn’t even meant to be used this way.

Andy

Andy

We also have multiple points of evidence where completely isolated people developed the same concepts at the same time (darwin/wallace type of thing) becuase cumulative understanding and information sharing just made it the right time.

Seems to me, even if it took an extra 1000 years, if westerners hadnt excelled, someone else would have eventually.

The 50% of civilizations trying to communicate is also bogus.

How many civilizations have been on Earth? Hundreds? Thousands? The development of technology was not inevitable.

Here’s a thought problem. How many civilizations were technologically far ahead of Western Europe, but eventually fell way behind? Do we have any reason to assume that Egypt, China, the Mongols, the Aztecs would have EVER developed technology?

Also, a consideration should be made of the melting/boiling points of solvents other than water. Methane is often cited as one example. This extends the range of temperatures that can qualify as suitable for life.

Mars was once habitable to life as it presently exists on Earth. Europa and Titan may also be habitable, even if only sporadically. Seeds can lie dormant for centuries before germinating. Elliptical orbits that could host active metabolism for part of their period.

And to the above commenter who states that the chance of life becoming intelligent is one in a billion, you’re misunderstanding the equation. That factor is the probability of any life form on the planet becoming intelligent. I would consider dolphins and great apes to qualify for this, therefore on our planet, the value is two. There is insufficient evidence on the intelligence of extinct species from other genera to include anything else. Of course, dolphins can’t build radio dishes, so they would be discounted by the communication factor. I would lump humans, orang utans, chimps and gorillas together as one evolution of “intelligence”. Dolphins evolved intelligence independently. The ability to communicate with other planets is a very recent development in the brief history of humans. We have been intelligent for a long time without having this facility.

Well, if it helps any, it wasn’t until recently the thinking was that the existence of planets around stars was thought to be an extremely rare occurrence also…that no longer seems to be the thinking.

When I look at that picture I linked to, I get this huge argument from incredulity…”No way is life restricted to earth!”

I know that was probably the effect you were going for.

It was. I was hoping that the people who thought I was an idiot up to that point would at least stay to the “reveal” – that I was exaggerating/lying in order to make my point. I probably should have waited till April Fool’s Day to publish this one. :)

One gripe, this assumption is not well supported:

“Let’s just take a guess here, and assume that if life occurs, there is a fifty percent chance it will become intelligent.”

I agree. And you are correct – I had to wiggle the numbers and assumptions around a bit to get the 65 value. But that’s also one of the points – almost every number is debatable. For example, my personal opinion is that the “Goldilocks planet” existence is an extremely small percentage, nowhere near one planet per system.

As a science fiction buff, I’d love to be proved wrong on any of these points. Until then I’ll think of the Drake Equation as a cool and fun toy, but not a very functional tool.

Andy

Whoa, I started listening to this and after the first sentence I thought you went over the deep end. Then you went on with “Assuming..let’s assume..let’s use..” and I really went all sour puss.

“None of this proves anything”
Phew!

I know that was probably the effect you were going for.

One gripe, this assumption is not well supported:

“Let’s just take a guess here, and assume that if life occurs, there is a fifty percent chance it will become intelligent.”

If we go by the evidence (our planet), I would think that this chance becomes something like one in a billion, depending on how you define intelligence. Billions of species of plant, germs and animals rose and fell over 4 billion years, very few intelligent.

I know that ruins the #65. But I would have included this picture and discussed how many galaxies there are.

…and on a completely unrelated note, I love your Gravatar image. Laughed out loud when I first saw it, and I have no idea why. That’s quality humor.

Andy